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Middle East Tensions Escalate

Syllabus

GS 2: India and its neighbourhood

Why in the News?

Recently, Israel launched a large-scale military operation named “Rising Lion” targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities, marking a pivotal escalation in their long-standing conflict and alarming global powers.

Introduction

  • On June 13, 2025, Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion” against Iran, targeting its nuclear and missile programs.
  • This bold action marks a turning point in the historic rivalry between the two nations.
  • The global community now closely watches as military, geopolitical, and economic consequences unfold rapidly across the Middle East and beyond.

Historical Background of Jewish-Persian Conflict

  • The rivalry between Jews and Persians dates back to 586 BCE.
  • Nebuchadnezzar II destroyed the first Jewish temple, igniting a centuries-old conflict.
  • Modern tensions between Israel and Iran are built upon this historic legacy, compounded by ideological and geopolitical differences post-1979 Iranian Revolution.

Trigger: Operation Rising Lion

  • On June 13, 2025, Israel initiated Operation Rising Lion to destroy Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure.
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it a “decisive moment in Israel’s history.”
  • Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei declared the attack a move that “sealed a bitter and painful destiny” for Israel.
  • The offensive came after 21 months of military confrontations with Iran and its proxy groups.

Military Execution and Strategy

  • The attack was a high-intensity, technology-driven blitzkrieg coordinated across land and air.
  • Over 200 Israeli jets struck more than 100 Iranian targets in a single night.
  • Key assassinations included:
    • Iran’s Armed Forces Chief of StaffRevolutionary Guards commandersEmergency Command headsSix nuclear scientists
    • Both hard (nuclear/military) and soft (human leadership) assets were hit simultaneously.

Preparation and Tactical Advantage

  • The operation followed extensive preparation involving coordination with allies.
  • Since Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack, Israel had escalated action against Iranian-backed militias.
  • The fall of the Assad regime in Syria weakened Iran’s strategic depth.
  • Prior Israeli airstrikes on Iranian soil provoked missile retaliation, triggering larger counterattacks.

Strengthening Defences and Offences

  • Israel enhanced its multilayered air defence systems.
  • It acquired new offensive technologies to target Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.
  • These preparations ensured Israel could carry out precise strikes with minimal exposure to retaliation.

Global and Regional Support Mechanisms

  • While global leaders urged diplomacy, the U.S. appeared to back Israel’s aggressive posture.
  • In 2018, the Trump administration had withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal.
  • Under Trump’s second term, “maximum pressure” tactics intensified against Iran.
  • Saudi Arabia was pressured to lift OPEC+ curbs, creating an oil surplus to reduce Iran’s revenue.
  • U.S. also launched airstrikes against Yemen’s al-Houthis to neutralize maritime threats.

Pre-Attack Diplomatic Cover

  • On June 12, 2025, the IAEA Board of Governors condemned Iran for violating nuclear pacts.
  • This resolution was seen as providing a legal pretext for Israel’s offensive the following day.
  • The U.S. also engaged Pakistan diplomatically, likely due to its strategic border with Iran.

Arab States’ Mixed Reactions

  • Sunni Arab nations are wary of both Israel and Iran.
  • Their main concern is regional blowback, such as:
    • Disruptions in oil shipments via the Strait of HormuzRetaliatory strikes on key infrastructureUprising of Shia minorities against Sunni governments
    • Instability could revive terrorist networks like ISIS and al-Qaeda.

Wider Regional Risks and Consequences

  • Israeli attacks currently focus on Iranian strategic capabilities.
  • However, unintended outcomes include radioactive leaks or civilian casualties.
  • If Iran survives and retaliates, it could destabilize the region further.
  • A prolonged conflict might unite ordinary Iranians around their government against external aggression.

Geopolitical Isolation and Economic Impact

  • Israel risks diplomatic isolation, especially from Third World nations.
  • A long war could:
    • Inflate global oil prices Slow down economic growth Disrupt international supply chains
    • Cause stock market instability
  • These consequences contradict Trump’s promise to avoid “endless wars.”

Future Possibilities and Fallout

  • Military conflicts rarely go as planned; this one may not follow Israel’s expectations.
  • Iran could adopt a long-term strategy and expand the conflict to:
    • Attack Western alliesEscalate regional tensions
    • Provoke U.S. military involvement

Potential U.S. Entrapment and Regional Reordering

  • Direct U.S. intervention could lead to:
    • Regime change in Tehran
    • A major shift in Middle Eastern power dynamics
  • Iran’s nuclear pursuit, costing up to $100 billion, might now seem counterproductive.
  • Its security goal could have ironically brought about greater vulnerability.

Lessons from History

  • Comparisons have been drawn to Operation Desert Storm (1991), where Saddam Hussein’s Iraq was crippled but not completely defeated.
  • Similarly, Israel aims to neutralize Iran, but the real-world outcome remains uncertain.

Strategic Implications for the World

  • Energy security is at risk if Iran blocks Hormuz Strait.
  • Countries dependent on Middle East oil could suffer economic shocks.
  • Geopolitical alliances might shift if the conflict drags on.

Conclusion

Israeli assault on Iran may redraw the regional map, realign global powers, and impact world economies. Whether it ends swiftly or escalates, the conflict’s aftershocks will ripple far beyond the Middle East.

Source:The Hindu

Mains Practice Question

Discuss the strategic and geopolitical implications of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion on Middle Eastern stability and global diplomacy.